Predicting survival of endoscopic gastrostomy candidates using the underlying disease, serum cholesterol, albumin and transferrin levels.

BACKGROUND Endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) is the gold standard for long-term enteral feeding. An adequate PEG candidate must have life expectancy longer than a few weeks. Patients surviving less than three weeks should have a nasogastric tube, and gastrostomy should be avoid. There are few studies looking to prognostic factors and fewer attempts of creating a predictor model for PEG patient's survival. AIM The aim of this study was creating a predictive survival model for PEG candidates, using underlying disease, cholesterol, albumin and transferrin. METHODS Data was obtained from records of adult patients that underwent PEG between 1999 and 2011. Patients surviving < 3 weeks were considered short survivors; surviving ≥ 3 weeks were considered adequate survivors. A full logistic regression model was used to classify future cases into one of the two groups of survival. RESULTS An equation for the probability of future cases was generated, in order to obtain a P value. In the future, patients with a P ≥ 0,88 will have a 64,7% probability of adequate surviving; patients with a P < 0,88 will have a 70.3% probability of short surviving. CONCLUSIONS When clinical evaluation alone does not display a clear prognosis, this equation should be included in the evaluation of gastrostomy candidates, avoiding useless gastrostomy.